Probability Basics and Listing Outcomes

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Probability 

Probability is the study of how likely things are to happen. We express the probability of an unknown event happening on a scale from certain to impossible, as a decimal, fraction or percentage.

Make sure you are happy with the following topics before continuing:

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Probability Scale

The probability (i.e. the chance) of something happening is defined on a scale from:

Impossible, 00, there is a 0%0% chance of that thing happening.

Certain, 11, there is a 100%100% chance of that thing happening.

E.g. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 65%65%, this would be classed as likely

The probability that it will be foggy tomorrow is 16,dfrac{1}{6}, this would be classed as unlikely.

probability scale unlikely and likely
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Probability Notation

To express “the probability of Xtext{X} happening” in a mathematical way, we write P(X)text{P(X)}.

Example: The probability that I will watch a film tonight is 0.80.8

This can be written as P(Film)=0.8text{P(Film)} = 0.8

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Calculating Probabilities

To calculate the probability, when all possible outcomes are equally likely, we can use the following formula:

Probability=P(X)=number of ways an outcome can happentotal number of possible outcomestextcolor{Blue}{text{Probability}} = textcolor{Blue}{text{P(X)}} = dfrac{text{number of ways an outcome can happen}}{text{total number of possible outcomes}}

Example: Calculate the probability of rolling an even number on a fair 6textcolor{black}{6} sided die.

  • There are 33 even numbers, so there are 33 different, equally likely ways of rolling an even number.
  • There are 66 numbers on a die, so there are a total of 66 possible outcomes.

P(even)=even numbers on a dietotal numbers on a die=36=0.5textcolor{blue}{text{P(even)}} = dfrac{text{even numbers on a die}}{text{total numbers on a die}} = dfrac{3}{6} = 0.5

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Probabilities Add Up to 1

If you consider all possible outcomes of an event (known as exhausting all options) then the probabilities must add up to 11

Example: The chance of flipping a coin and landing on heads is one half, and the chance of landing on tails is the same, one half. These are the only two possibilities (we’ve exhausted all options).

Adding these two up we get,

P(heads)+P(tails)=12+12=1text{P(heads)}+text{P(tails)}=dfrac{1}{2}+dfrac{1}{2}=1

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Sample Space Diagrams

listing outcomes spinner
listing outcomes spinner

Listing outcomes is exactly what it sounds like – given a scenario, list every possible outcome. When there are two events taking place, we make use of a sample space diagram to help keep track of all the possible outcomes. This takes the form of a two way table.

Example: Megan spins two spinners numbered 11 to 55 and records the sum of the values each spinner lands on.

listing outcomes spinner two way table
listing outcomes spinner two way table

a) List all possible outcomes that Megan could find.

To do this we create and fill in a two way table to find every possible combination of scores from two spinners. As we can see there a total of 2525 possible outcomes.

b) What is the probability of Megan recording a score of 88 or more?

All we have to do is count the number of squares on the table that have a score of 88 or more and make a fraction out of the total possible number of outcomes.  There are 66 ways of getting this result.

This gives,

P(8 or more)=625text{P(8 or more)} = dfrac{6}{25}

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Systematic Listing

You may be asked to consider a scenario and list all of the possible outcomes there could be. The best way of doing this is systematically, or using systematic listing.

Listing options in a systematic way ensures you don’t miss out any possible outcomes.

Example:

A maths student is randomly selecting a three digit number containing the digits 1,51, 5 and 99.

List all possible outcomes of this selection.

As we are listing systematically, we need to list in a specific order. We will start with numbers beginning with 11,

159,195159, 195

And now starting with 55,

519,591519, 591

Finally, starting with 99,

915,951915, 951

So the possible outcomes are,

159,195,519,591,915,951159, 195, 519, 591, 915, 951

 

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Product Rule

When there are a large number of outcomes or there are more than 22 events occurring, we can use the product rule to count the number of outcomes instead of listing all the possible outcomes, as this can take too long.

The product rule states that:

The total number of outcomes for 22 or more events is equal to the number of outcomes for each event multiplied together.

Example: A restaurant offers a set menu, that contains 33 starters, 88 main courses, and 44 desserts.

How many different ways are there to choose a three-course meal?

To do this, all we need to do is multiply the number of options together.

The number of different three-course meals =3×8×4=96= 3 times 8 times 4 = 96

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Example:

Sarah and Charlie are playing a game, there are 33 possible outcomes for the game: Sarah wins, Charlie wins, or it’s a draw.

The chance of Sarah winning is 0.60.6, a draw is half as likely as Sarah winning.

What is the probability that Charlie wins?

[2 marks]

Probability of a draw = half the probability that Sarah wins:

P(draw)=0.6÷2=0.3text{P(draw)}=0.6div 2=0.3

Exhausting all options, we know that P(Sarah wins)text{P(Sarah wins)}, P(draw)text{P(draw)}, and P(Charlie wins)text{P(Charlie wins)} must all add up to 11, so

0.6+0.3+P(Charlie wins)=10.9+P(Charlie wins)=1begin{aligned} 0.6+0.3+text{P(Charlie wins)}&=1 0.9+text{P(Charlie wins)}&=1end{aligned}

Then, subtracting 0.90.9 from both sides of the equation, we get

P(Charlie wins)=10.9=0.1text{P(Charlie wins)}=1-0.9=0.1

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Probability Basics and Listing Outcomes Example Questions

Question 1: A spinning wheel is made up of 33 different sections, section AA, section BB and section CC.

 

P(A)=55%text{P(A)}=55%

 

P(B)=25text{P(B)}=dfrac{2}{5}

 

Work out the probability of the wheel stopping on section CC.

[2 marks]

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Since AA, BB, and CC are the only possible outcomes, their probabilities must add up to 11.

 

Therefore, if we take both P(A)text{P(A)} and P(B)text{P(B)} away from 100%100% or 11, we can work out P(C)text{P(C)}, the probability of the wheel stopping section CC.

 

The only issue presented to us in this question is that the probability of the wheel stopping in section AA is given as a percentage, whereas for section BB it is expressed as a fraction. We will therefore need to convert either the fraction to the percentage or the percentage to the fraction so that the two probabilities are expressed in the same way.

 

Although you can turn a percentage to a fraction quite easily, in this question it is probably easier to convert the fraction 25frac{2}{5} to a percentage (provided you know what the percentage value of 15frac{1}{5} is):

 

15=20%frac{1}{5} = 20%

so

25=40%frac{2}{5} = 40%

 

Since the probability of the wheel stopping in section AA is 55%55%, and the probability of the wheel stopping in section BB is 40%40%, that means we can calculate the probability of the wheel stopping in either section AA or BB:

 

P(A)+P(B)=55%+40%=95%text{P(A)}+text{P(B)}= 55% + 40% = 95%

 

This therefore means that chance of the wheel stopping in section CC can be calculated as follows:

 

100%95%=5%100% – 95% = 5%

 

(An answer expressed as a decimal (0.050.05) or as a fraction 120frac{1}{20} is also acceptable.)

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Question 2: When Jimmy decides to go to the cinema, he will either go to watch a sci-fi movie, a horror movie, or a romantic comedy. The probability he chooses a romantic comedy is 0.560.56. There is an equal chance that he picks a horror movie or a sci-fi movie. Find:

a)  the probability Jimmy chooses a sci-fi movie

b)  the probability Jimmy choose a sci-fi movie or a romantic comedy

[4 marks]

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a)  We know that the probability of Jimmy watching a romantic comedy is 0.560.56.  Therefore we can easily calculate the probability of Jimmy not watching a romantic comedy:

 

10.56=0.441 – 0.56 = 0.44

 

This figure of 0.440.44, the probability of Jimmy not watching a romantic comedy, is the same probability as Jimmy watching either a horror film or a sci-fi movie.

 

Since the probability of Jimmy watching a sci-fi movie or a horror film is equal, then the probability of Jimmy watching a sci-fi movie must be half of this amount:

 

0.44÷2=0.220.44 div2 = 0.22

 

b)  From part a), we know that the probability of Jimmy watching a sci-fi movie is 0.220.22.

 

The probability of Jimmy watching a romantic comedy is 0.560.56.

 

In order to calculate the probability of Jimmy watching either a romantic comedy or a sci-fi movie we need to add the probabilities of each, since this is an either / or scenario:

 

0.22+0.56=0.780.22 + 0.56 = 0.78

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Question 3: Macy is deciding what colour trousers and what colour jumper to wear. Her choices are given below.

Trouser colours: black, navy, purple

Jumper colours: orange, yellow, white

If she chooses to wear black trousers and a yellow jumper, that would be denoted as BY.

List all other possible outcomes for Macy’s choice of outfit.

[3 marks]

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If Macy chooses black trousers, then she has 33 choices for the colour of her jumper, so the 33 possible outcomes are:

BO,  BY,  BW

 

If she chooses navy trousers, then the 33 possible outcomes are:

NO,  NY,  NW

 

Finally, if she chooses purple trousers, then the remaining possible outcomes are:

PO,  PY,  PW

 

BY was already given in the question, so the full list of other possible outcomes is:

 

BO,  BW,  NO,  NY, NW,  PO,  PY,  PW

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Question 4: A bag contains beads that are either red, blue, or green. Work out the probability of:

a) picking a blue bead out of the bag

b) picking a green bead out of the bag

 

probability example 4

[4 marks]

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a)  We know that the probability of selecting a red, blue or green bead must add up to 11.  We know that the probability of selecting a red bead is 0.250.25, so the probability of selecting either a blue or a green bead must be:

 

10.25=0.751 – 0.25 = 0.75

 

The problem in this question is that the probability of selecting a blue bead and the probability of selecting a green bead is not the same.  Selecting a blue bead has a probability 5x5x and selecting a green bead has a probability of 4x4x.  This means that the probability of selecting a blue or green bead is:

 

 5x+4x=9x5x + 4x = 9x

 

Since we know that the probability of selecting a blue or green bead is 0.750.75, we can therefore conclude that 9x=0.759x = 0.75

 

If

9x=0.759x = 0.75

then

x=0.75÷9=112x = 0.75 div 9 = dfrac{1}{12}

 

If the probability of selecting a blue bead is 5x5x, and x=112x = dfrac{1}{12}, then the probability of selecting a blue bead is 512dfrac{5}{12}.

 

b) If the probability of selecting a green bead is 4x4x, and x=112x = dfrac{1}{12}, then the probability of selecting a blue bead is 412dfrac{4}{12}.  This fraction can then be simplified to 13dfrac{1}{3}

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Question 5: Some numbered raffle tickets are placed in a hat.  The tickets are numbered 11 to 5050 inclusive.  A ticket is selected at random.  What is the probability:

a)  that the ticket is a multiple of 55 or an odd number?

b)  that the ticket is a factor of 4848?

[4 marks]

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a)  We know that the tickets are only numbered between 11 and 5050, so we need to work out how many of these fall into the category of being either a multiple of 55 or an odd number.

 

There are 2525 odd numbers in total between 11 and 5050:

1,3,5,7,9,11, 13, 15,1, , 3, , 5, , 7, , 9, , 11,,  13,,  15, 17,19,21,23,25,27,29,31,17, , 19, , 21, , 23, , 25, , 27, , 29, , 31, 33,35,37,39,41,43,45,47,4933, , 35, , 37, , 39, , 41, , 43, , 45, , 47, , 49

 

There are 1010 multiples of 55 between 11 and 5050: 5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45, 505, , 10, , 15, , 20, , 25, , 30, , 35, , 40, , 45, ,  50

 

However, some of these multiples of 55 also feature on the odd number list, so cannot be counted twice.  So, ignoring the odd multiples of 55, there are only 55 multiples of 55 remaining.

 

25 odd numbers+5 (even) multiples of 5=30 numbers in total25 text{ odd numbers} + 5 text{ (even) multiples of } 5 = 30 text{ numbers in total}

 

If 3030 of the 5050 numbers fall into the category of being either odd or a multiple of 55, then as a fraction we can express this as:

 

3050dfrac{30}{50} which can be simplified to 35dfrac{3}{5}

 

It is also perfectly acceptable to express the probability as a decimal or as a percentage:

 

35dfrac{3}{5} as a decimal is 3÷5=0.63 div 5 = 0.6

 

35dfrac{3}{5} as a percentage is 3÷5×100=60%3 div 5 times 100 = 60%

 

 

b)  The factors of 4848 are as follows:

11 and 4848

22 and 2424

33 and 1616

44 and 1212

66 and 88

 

(If you are ever working out the factors of a number, write them in pairs, and start at 11.)

 

This means that 1010 numbers out of the 5050 in the hat are factors of 4848.  We can express this as a fraction:

 

1050dfrac{10}{50} which can be simplified to 15dfrac{1}{5}

 

It is also perfectly acceptable to express the probability as a decimal or as a percentage:

 

15dfrac{1}{5} as a decimal is 1÷5=0.21 div 5 = 0.2

 

15dfrac{1}{5} as a percentage is 1÷5×100=20%1 div 5 times 100 = 20%

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Specification Points Covered

Probability – 1. record describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of probability experiments using tables and frequency trees

Probability – 2. apply ideas of randomness, fairness and equally likely events to calculate expected outcomes of multiple future experiments

Probability – 3. relate relative expected frequencies to theoretical probability, using appropriate language and the 0011 probability scale

Probability – 4. apply the property that the probabilities of an exhaustive set of outcomes sum to one; apply the property that the probabilities of an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive events sum to one

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